Trump Confirms Tariffs: 25% Hike on Canada Lumber Imminent

Impact on Your Procurement Strategy

The announcement that the 30-day suspension of tariffs is ending and that the duties are “Going Forward” eliminates the last vestige of hope for a rapid trade resolution. For dimensional lumber buyers, this confirmation locks in the expectation of a significant, immediate price increase on all Canadian imports, primarily SPF (Spruce-Pine-Fir) and Hem-Fir.

This means the 25% tariff on Canadian goods will be effective next month, likely starting on or around April 1. This is not a market volatility event; it is a fixed cost increase. On current market prices, a 25% duty will add approximately $100 to $150 per thousand board feet (MBF) to the landed cost of Canadian lumber. Distributors must budget for this increase and understand that Canadian mills and US importers will pass this cost directly through. Expect price sheets reflecting the new baseline to be issued in late March, creating volatility as the deadline nears.

From a supply chain perspective, the immediate effect will be intense anticipatory buying. Procurement managers who need Q2 inventory will scramble to secure shipments before the implementation date. This rush will temporarily tighten supply and extend lead times, especially for standard construction grades of Western Canadian SPF studs and dimension lumber entering the Midwest and Northeast markets. Buyers should plan for lead times to extend by 7 to 14 days as logistics networks are strained by the pre-tariff rush. Securing rail and truck capacity now is as crucial as securing the wood itself.

Given the certainty of the tariff, waiting for a price dip is highly risky; the effective price floor for imported SPF has fundamentally risen by 25%. Buyers should execute final Q1 purchases now and consider purchasing slightly heavier inventory to bridge the gap until the market fully stabilizes at the new, higher tariff-inclusive baseline. Furthermore, buyers should use this opportunity to diversify risk by actively exploring domestic alternatives, such as increasing volume commitments to US Southern Yellow Pine (SYP) or domestic Hem-Fir suppliers, though this may put minor upward pressure on those domestic prices due to demand diversion.

Key Takeaways

• Prioritize securing critical SPF inventory now for delivery before the anticipated April 1 tariff date to avoid the immediate 25% price shock.

• Budget for a minimum $100-$150/MBF increase on all incoming Canadian dimensional lumber orders starting next month.

• Evaluate substituting some Canadian SPF volume with domestic SYP or Hem-Fir to diversify supply and manage tariff exposure through Q2.

Market Outlook

Pricing Trend: UP Confidence Level: HIGH Recommended Action: Execute final Q1 purchases of Canadian SPF immediately, targeting delivery by March 28. Lock in volume now to mitigate the mandated 25% cost increase expected beginning in April.

How LumberFlow Helps

Use LumberFlow's quote comparison dashboard to quickly evaluate the cost difference between pre-tariff and post-tariff quotes, ensuring you lock in the lowest price before the 25% duty is applied. Our multi-supplier RFQ system allows rapid sourcing of domestic alternatives like SYP to hedge against Canadian supply risk.

Ready to stay ahead of market trends? Book a consultation with our team to see how LumberFlow's procurement platform transforms dimensional lumber buying.