Conifex Curtailment Signals Price Floor for Western SPF

Impact on Your Procurement Strategy

The announcement that Conifex will temporarily reduce output by roughly 13 million board feet (MMBF) starting December 15 is a clear signal from the supply side that current Western SPF pricing is unsustainable. This curtailment, driven by 'continued weakness in North American lumber markets' and critically, the impact of recently increased countervailing and anti-dumping duties, confirms that many Canadian producers are operating at or near a loss.

For procurement managers, this action limits immediate downside risk on SPF pricing. Producers are sacrificing volume to support price stability. While demand remains soft due to elevated interest rates and slower residential construction, the cumulative effect of these industry-wide curtailments—which have already pushed North American production to its lowest level in a decade—means that the market is rapidly rebalancing inventories. Distributors buying Western SPF (especially in the Midwest and Northeast, which rely heavily on BC imports) should recognize that the current low price environment is fragile. If you need inventory for Q1 2026, the purchasing window is likely opening now, before the full effect of the December/January cuts hits the supply chain.

The most significant factor cited by Conifex is the high duty rate, which has severely compressed cash margins. This means that even if market demand doesn't immediately recover, producers have a low tolerance for further price weakness. Any minor uptick in housing sentiment or repair-and-remodel activity could trigger immediate price volatility, as mills will be quick to raise prices to regain profitability lost to tariffs. Currently, prices are supported by the threat of further, longer-term capacity closures.

Looking ahead, while the near-term (Q1 2026) remains challenging, Conifex emphasized positive medium- and long-term fundamentals, citing structural US housing undersupply and improving affordability conditions as interest rates normalize (expected recovery H2 2026). This sets up a dangerous scenario for buyers: extreme supply tightness now (due to curtailments) combined with strong future demand potential. If demand recovers faster than expected in the spring, the industry's reduced production capacity will struggle to catch up, leading to sharp price spikes. Buyers must manage inventory conservatively but strategically, ensuring they aren't caught short when seasonal demand returns.

Key Takeaways

• The 13 MMBF cut signals a price floor. Secure essential Western SPF inventory for Q1 needs now, as downside risk is limited by aggressive mill action.

• Acknowledge the rising risk of sudden price spikes in Q2 2026 if demand recovers before decade-low production levels can be ramped up.

• Factor the duty impact into your cost models: Canadian SPF margins are compressed, meaning any price relief is likely temporary until duties are lowered or demand surges.

Market Outlook

Pricing Trend: STABLE Confidence Level: MEDIUM Recommended Action: Given the aggressive supply cuts designed to halt price erosion, use the current low pricing environment (pre-curtailment effect) to lock in 30-45 days of SPF inventory before December 15. Expect lead times to creep up slightly in early January.

How LumberFlow Helps

LumberFlow's automated price alerts help track Western SPF benchmarks against your current inventory costs, ensuring you hit the optimal purchasing window before supply cuts trigger a rebound. Use our multi-supplier RFQ system to test the market for the best price/delivery combination before the holiday slowdown begins.

Ready to stay ahead of market trends? Book a consultation with our team to see how LumberFlow's procurement platform transforms dimensional lumber buying.