Canadian Shipments Plunge 13.5% in August: What It Means for SPF Supply

Impact on Your Procurement Strategy

The key takeaway for dimensional lumber buyers is the dramatic deceleration of supply flow: Canadian sawmills saw shipments plummet by 13.5% month-over-month in August, totaling 3,509.4 thousand m³. This far outpaces the minor 1.9% decrease in production. This divergence—where mills produced almost as much wood but shipped significantly less—is the most critical factor influencing Q4 supply dynamics for buyers.

For procurement managers relying on Canadian SPF (Spruce-Pine-Fir), this data signals immediate supply risk, particularly for distributors in the Northeast and Midwest. A 13.5% reduction in throughput means less material entered the supply chain pipeline. There are two primary interpretations, both requiring action: 1) Demand destruction in August was severe, forcing mills to hold inventory, or 2) Logistical challenges or mill caution intentionally slowed shipments. If the former, pricing pressure remains contained; if the latter, the market is structurally tighter, and any stabilization in US housing starts could trigger rapid price increases due to scarcity.

The overall year-over-year trend reinforces caution. August 2025 shipments were 8.5% lower than August 2024. This confirms structural weakness in supply continuity, suggesting that buyers cannot rely on mills to aggressively push volume or maintain pre-pandemic lead times. Buyers should assume Western SPF lead times are highly susceptible to extension—moving quickly from the current 2-3 week range to 4+ weeks if demand accelerates, even modestly, in late Q4.

Actionable Timing and Strategy: Given the reduced August throughput, buyers should prioritize locking in sufficient volume to cover essential needs through the end of the year and into the first few weeks of January. This is a risk mitigation strategy against potential supply shocks rather than a bet on immediate price appreciation. We recommend focusing on securing common framing sizes (2x4, 2x6) now, specifically asking suppliers about their fulfillment capacity and confirmed delivery dates for the next 45 days. Delaying large, speculative buys is still prudent, but neglecting basic inventory replenishment based on this data would be exposing your business to unnecessary supply scarcity risk in Q1 2026. Adjust your safety stock for critical SPF items upward by 10% to hedge against the confirmed reduction in shipment volume.

Key Takeaways

• The 13.5% MoM shipment fall suggests immediate supply pressure; verify that your existing orders are not subject to extended lead times (e.g., 4+ weeks) for SPF dimension lumber.

• Watch for rising mill inventories. If US housing starts stabilize, this temporary supply constraint could quickly push Western SPF pricing UP in late December or early January.

• The 8.5% YOY shipment decline confirms a weaker structural supply chain compared to 2024; adjust inventory safety stock levels accordingly for Q1 2026.

• Prioritize securing delivery commitments over just securing favorable pricing, as the primary risk now is supply availability, not short-term price volatility.

Market Outlook

Pricing Trend: STABLE Confidence Level: MEDIUM Recommended Action: Given the 13.5% shipment drop, prioritize securing adequate SPF volume for late Q4 and early Q1. Action: Confirm fulfillment capacity with primary Canadian suppliers by November 15 and cover essential 60-day inventory positions to mitigate potential supply shocks.

How LumberFlow Helps

The sharp drop in shipments necessitates rapid response to lead time changes and supplier reliability. Use LumberFlow’s [Quote Comparison Dashboard](https://app.lumberflow.com) to quickly verify the best delivery dates and pricing across multiple Canadian and US suppliers. Set up [automated price alerts](https://lumberflow.com/en/features) to signal if the reduced supply volume begins to push SPF prices past critical resistance levels.

Ready to stay ahead of market trends? [Book a consultation](https://lumberflow.com/en/contact) with our team to see how LumberFlow's procurement platform transforms dimensional lumber buying.